ÐßÐßÊÓƵ

mmediate Fallout: Shipments Frozen, Rates in Limbo

• Volume collapse: A top-5 global freight forwarder reports 35¨C40% of China-US cargo and 30% of Vietnam-US shipments paused due to tariffs. E-commerce leads the downturn with 50% fewer orders.

• Rate stance: Carriers freeze rates until mid-April but slash sailings. USWC spot rates hover at 2,300/¹ó·¡±«??,²ú±ô±ð²Ô»å¾±²Ô²µ³Ù´Ç??2,300/¹ó·¡±«??,²ú±ô±ð²Ô»å¾±²Ô²µ³Ù´Ç??2,000¨C2,100/¹ó·¡±« with long-term contracts ($1,500¨C1,700/FEU).

• Pre-tariff rush: A 51-day grace period (for goods shipped by April 5 arriving before May 27) spurred limited urgency. Some cargo raced to meet the April 9 deadline for exemption.

Long-Term Threats: Contract Chaos & ¡°Worst-Case¡± Scenarios

• Annual outlook: Q1 2024 may mark the peak volume, with imports sliding thereafter. NRF predicts 3.2% fewer TEUs in June and 13.9% in July.

• Contract turmoil: Shippers reject 300¨C400³ó¾±°ì±ð²õ??´Ç²Ô2023°ù²¹³Ù±ð²õ.±«³§°Â°ä±ô´Ç²Ô²µ?³Ù±ð°ù³¾°ù²¹³Ù±ð²õ³¾²¹²â²õ±ð³Ù³Ù±ô±ð²¹³Ù??300¨C400³ó¾±°ì±ð²õ??´Ç²Ô2023°ù²¹³Ù±ð²õ.±«³§°Â°ä±ô´Ç²Ô²µ?³Ù±ð°ù³¾°ù²¹³Ù±ð²õ³¾²¹²â²õ±ð³Ù³Ù±ô±ð²¹³Ù??1,700/¹ó·¡±« (vs. $1,200¨C1,500/FEU last year).

• Red Sea wildcard: If Red Sea disruptions ease, overcapacity could crash rates further.

Sector-Specific Damage

Policy Uncertainty: Deadlines & ¡°Made in USA¡± Demands

• Port fees: Proposed tariffs on China-built vessels could reshape carrier competition (19% of US port calls are China-made ships, per Alphaliner).

• Negotiation stalemate: Even ¡°zero-tariff¡± proposals (e.g., Vietnam) face delays as the US pushes for local manufacturing.

Quote:

¡°This feels like early COVID¡ªno one knows the rules yet. If buyers and sellers agree on tariff splits by Q3, we might see a restocking wave.¡±
¡ª Global Top-5 ÐßÐßÊÓƵ

Actionable Insights

1. For shippers: Lock in pre-tariff rates; explore ASEAN transshipment.

2. For carriers: Hedge with mid-year capacity cuts; target non-tariff lanes.

3. For e-commerce: Shift to de minimis loopholes or bonded warehouses.