ÐßÐßÊÓƵ

Freight Rate Split: US Stability vs Europe¡¯s Slide

Rate Performance (Jan 1 ¨C May 2025)

Behind the Numbers

US Routes: Artificial Stability?

• April surge: 16% rate jump as importers raced to beat Trump¡¯s April 9 tariffs

• Carrier tactic: 12% blank sailings (vs 5% in Q1) mimic COVID-era capacity cuts

• Sword of Damocles: Q2 consumer demand drop could collapse current floor

"This is carrier-led stabilization¡ªnot market recovery."
¡ª Peter Sand, Xeneta Chief Analyst

Europe Routes: Glut Without Glory

• No tariff escape valve: Only 3% of diverted US cargo reaches Europe

• Vessel oversupply: New 24,000 TEU megaships add pressure

• Silver lining: Mediterranean rates down just 1.6% on Turkish/Egyptian demand

  
  

• 

What¡¯s Next? 3 Scenarios

1. US Hold Steady (40% Probability)

• Conditions:

• Blank sailings continue at >10%

• June retail sales beat expectations

• Outcome: Rates fluctuate ±5% through Q3

2. Europe Finds Floor (30%)

• Conditions:

• Carriers scrap 2-3 Asia-Europe loops

• Red Sea fully reopens (adding back capacity)

• Outcome: Europe rates rebound to $2,500/FEU by August

3. Dual Collapse (30%)

• Conditions:

• US tariffs crush Q3 imports

• European recession deepens

• Outcome: USWC below 2,000,Europesub?2,000,Europesub?1,800

Strategic Takeaways

• For importers: Lock US rates now¡ªJune GRIs likely if volumes tick up

• For exporters: Europe¡¯s slump = negotiation leverage for long-term contracts

• For carriers: Mediterranean may become new profit center vs North Europe

*Data as of May 2025 | Verify latest rates with Xeneta/Sea-Intel*

Need a customized procurement strategy? Share your trade lane for tailored advice.