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Contract Rates Surge Amid Policy Uncertainty

Trump 2.0¡¯s radical moves have "terrified Wall Street," "dazed US allies," and will inevitably "disrupt global supply chains." However, JOC reports that US major retailers have signed 2025-2026 Trans-Pacific eastbound service contracts at rates 15-20% higher than 2024 levels. Small and mid-sized importers are expected to finalize agreements at slightly higher rates in coming weeks.

Verified data from 3 carriers, 7 NVOs, and 2 industry sources confirm:

• West Coast rates: 1,600¨C1,600¨C1,800/¹ó·¡±«

• East Coast rates: +$1,000/FEU (vs West Coast)

• Contract period: May 1, 2025 ¨C April 30, 2026

Negotiation Phases:

1. Mega shippers (200,000+ TEU/year direct clients) set benchmarks.

2. Mid-sized shippers (30,000¨C40,000 TEU/year) are now negotiating West Coast rates of 1,700¨C1,700¨C1,900/¹ó·¡±« (vs 2024¡¯s 1,500¨C1,500¨C1,700). First-round talks are nearing completion, with contracts likely signed by April.

Despite geopolitical tensions, both shippers and liners have adapted through "cooperation" to establish stable contract terms.

Wan Hai¡¯s Optimistic Forecast

Tommy Hsieh, Wan Hai¡¯s Managing Director, expects 20-30% higher Trans-Pacific contract rates, citing:

• Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope (post Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapse).

• Potential capacity shortages when demand rebounds.

On US port fees for China-built vessels:

• Wan Hai¡¯s fleet includes 10% China-built ships, primarily deployed in intra-Asia routes.

• 2024 expansion: 3x 13,000 TEU vessels for long-haul routes.

• 2026-2030: 30 newbuilds (8x 16,000 TEU, 20x 8,700 TEU, 2x 7,000 TEU).

Which Carrier Faces Maximum Risk from US Port Fees?

The USTR¡¯s "Section 301" hearing concluded with criticism but little expectation Trump will abandon the plan to tax China-built vessels calling at US ports.

Alphaliner¡¯s February 2024 data (1,002 container ships at top 20 US ports):

• China-built ships: 190 (19% of 488 total port calls).

• South Korea-built: 54.5%.

Top carriers affected:

1. Maersk/CMA CGM/MSC ¨C Can redeploy non-China-built ships to US routes.

• Example: MSC had only 13 China-built ships among 91 US port calls (global fleet: 899).

2. Zim ¨C 48% of capacity deployed on Asia-North America routes relies on China-built 5,315¨C7,800 TEU ships (long-term charters from Seaspan/Navios), leaving minimal redeployment flexibility.