Trump 2.0’s Unpredictable Policies Drive Up US Route Contract Rates
Publish Time: 2025-04-01 Origin: Site
Contract Rates Surge Amid Policy Uncertainty
Trump 2.0’s radical moves have "terrified Wall Street," "dazed US allies," and will inevitably "disrupt global supply chains." However, JOC reports that US major retailers have signed 2025-2026 Trans-Pacific eastbound service contracts at rates 15-20% higher than 2024 levels. Small and mid-sized importers are expected to finalize agreements at slightly higher rates in coming weeks.
Verified data from 3 carriers, 7 NVOs, and 2 industry sources confirm:
West Coast rates: 1,600–1,600–1,800/贵贰鲍
East Coast rates: +$1,000/FEU (vs West Coast)
Contract period: May 1, 2025 – April 30, 2026
Negotiation Phases:
Mega shippers (200,000+ TEU/year direct clients) set benchmarks.
Mid-sized shippers (30,000–40,000 TEU/year) are now negotiating West Coast rates of 1,700–1,700–1,900/贵贰鲍 (vs 2024’s 1,500–1,500–1,700). First-round talks are nearing completion, with contracts likely signed by April.
Despite geopolitical tensions, both shippers and liners have adapted through "cooperation" to establish stable contract terms.
Wan Hai’s Optimistic Forecast
Tommy Hsieh, Wan Hai’s Managing Director, expects 20-30% higher Trans-Pacific contract rates, citing:
Rerouting via Cape of Good Hope (post Israel-Hamas ceasefire collapse).
Potential capacity shortages when demand rebounds.
On US port fees for China-built vessels:
Wan Hai’s fleet includes 10% China-built ships, primarily deployed in intra-Asia routes.
2024 expansion: 3x 13,000 TEU vessels for long-haul routes.
2026-2030: 30 newbuilds (8x 16,000 TEU, 20x 8,700 TEU, 2x 7,000 TEU).
Which Carrier Faces Maximum Risk from US Port Fees?
The USTR’s "Section 301" hearing concluded with criticism but little expectation Trump will abandon the plan to tax China-built vessels calling at US ports.
Alphaliner’s February 2024 data (1,002 container ships at top 20 US ports):
China-built ships: 190 (19% of 488 total port calls).
South Korea-built: 54.5%.
Top carriers affected:
Maersk/CMA CGM/MSC – Can redeploy non-China-built ships to US routes.
Example: MSC had only 13 China-built ships among 91 US port calls (global fleet: 899).
Zim – 48% of capacity deployed on Asia-North America routes relies on China-built 5,315–7,800 TEU ships (long-term charters from Seaspan/Navios), leaving minimal redeployment flexibility.