Tariff Storm Hits US Trade Routes: 40% Cargo Halted, Cross-Border E-Commerce Shipments Plunge 50%
Publish Time: 2025-04-10 Origin: Site
mmediate Fallout: Shipments Frozen, Rates in Limbo
Volume collapse: A top-5 global freight forwarder reports 35–40% of China-US cargo and 30% of Vietnam-US shipments paused due to tariffs. E-commerce leads the downturn with 50% fewer orders.
Rate stance: Carriers freeze rates until mid-April but slash sailings. USWC spot rates hover at 2,300/贵贰鲍??,产濒别苍诲颈苍驳迟辞??2,300/贵贰鲍??,产濒别苍诲颈苍驳迟辞??2,000–2,100/贵贰鲍 with long-term contracts ($1,500–1,700/FEU).
Pre-tariff rush: A 51-day grace period (for goods shipped by April 5 arriving before May 27) spurred limited urgency. Some cargo raced to meet the April 9 deadline for exemption.
Long-Term Threats: Contract Chaos & “Worst-Case” Scenarios
Annual outlook: Q1 2024 may mark the peak volume, with imports sliding thereafter. NRF predicts 3.2% fewer TEUs in June and 13.9% in July.
Contract turmoil: Shippers reject 300–400丑颈办别蝉??辞苍2023谤补迟别蝉.鲍厂奥颁濒辞苍驳?迟别谤尘谤补迟别蝉尘补测蝉别迟迟濒别补迟??300–400丑颈办别蝉??辞苍2023谤补迟别蝉.鲍厂奥颁濒辞苍驳?迟别谤尘谤补迟别蝉尘补测蝉别迟迟濒别补迟??1,700/贵贰鲍 (vs. $1,200–1,500/FEU last year).
Red Sea wildcard: If Red Sea disruptions ease, overcapacity could crash rates further.
Sector-Specific Damage
| Region | Impact |
|---|---|
| North China | Steel, chemicals, tires, and low-value frozen cargo paused. |
| Central China | Some shipments accelerated to April 9; post-April 14 bookings canceled. |
| E-commerce | Costs now exceed product value; 50% volume drop expected. 90% of China-US e-commerce moves by sea (contrary to air freight assumptions). |
| Carriers | Lines with China-built fleets face pressure to discount. |
Policy Uncertainty: Deadlines & “Made in USA” Demands
Port fees: Proposed tariffs on China-built vessels could reshape carrier competition (19% of US port calls are China-made ships, per Alphaliner).
Negotiation stalemate: Even “zero-tariff” proposals (e.g., Vietnam) face delays as the US pushes for local manufacturing.
Quote:
“This feels like early COVID—no one knows the rules yet. If buyers and sellers agree on tariff splits by Q3, we might see a restocking wave.”
— Global Top-5 羞羞视频
Actionable Insights
For shippers: Lock in pre-tariff rates; explore ASEAN transshipment.
For carriers: Hedge with mid-year capacity cuts; target non-tariff lanes.
For e-commerce: Shift to de minimis loopholes or bonded warehouses.